Deer Lodge, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

522
FXUS65 KMSO 020746
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1246 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Unsettled start to the week: Light valley rain, localized black
  ice, mainly northwest Montana. Light snow on Lolo, Lookout and
  Marias passes

- Mid week ridge: Warmth and stagnant pattern

- Pattern Shift on the Horizon (Feb 8-10): Increased precipitation
  chances

Occasional showers linger early this morning with snow levels hovering near
4500 feet. A localized slick commute is possible across northwest
Montana (particularly in the Glacier Region) where light rain
falling on sub-freezing roadways may result in pockets of black
ice. Passes such as Lolo, Lookout, and Marias may also see brief
snow cover. Otherwise, expect shower activity to taper off by
sunrise, leaving behind slightly cooler temperatures today
compared to Sunday.

A fast-moving disturbance arrives by mid-afternoon with scattered
showers primarily in the terrain. Snow levels remain near 4500
feet, with light precipitation continuing into early Tuesday.
Overall impacts remain minor, with snowfall accumulations
generally limited to less than an inch over the passes.

High pressure ridging amplifies significantly from Tuesday
through Saturday, bringing a return to unseasonably warm
temperatures. Highs could challenge daily records Wednesday
through Friday. However, this stagnant ridge pattern is a textbook
setup for valley inversions; fog and stratus will likely expand
over time, particularly across northwest Montana. Consequently,
valley high temperatures in these trapped basins of northwest
Montana may struggle to realize their full potential, likely
verifying on the cooler side of guidance.

Looking ahead, ensemble guidance strongly (about 85% of
ensemble clusters) signals a pattern shift beginning around
February 8-10th. Evidence supports the ridge breaking down in
favor of an upper- level trough digging along the West Coast. This
transition would open the door for increased precipitation
chances and a downward trend in temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...Residual mountain obscurations, scattered showers, and gusty
ridgetop winds will linger through early morning before tapering off
by sunrise as the departing shortwave exits the region. Patchy
valley fog may pop up this morning, particularly within the
valleys of northwest Montana.

Widespread VFR conditions are expected to prevail by mid morning
as skies partially clear. However, a secondary weak disturbance
embedded in northwest flow arrives by mid-afternoon. Expect
ceilings to lower as mid-level clouds thicken, bringing a return
of scattered terrain-based showers and renewing mountain
obscurations through Tuesday morning. Ridgetop winds will re-
intensify with this system, likely inducing mechanical turbulence
and occasional gusts of 15 to 20 kts surfacing at valley terminals
this afternoon and evening.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$